I ran an arbitrage bot on Polymarket. Here are the real numbers
6 hours ago
- #Esports Betting
- #Polymarket
- #Arbitrage Bot
- Ran an arbitrage bot on Polymarket from January to March 2026, netting $4,973 from 3,858 bets.
- Arbitrage bets made $8,293, but directional bets (forced by unhedged legs) lost $3,184.
- Strategy involved using sportsbook odds to place limit orders with a minimum 7% edge on esports markets.
- Execution challenges included bugs like swapped probabilities and incorrect vig removal methods.
- Edge decayed over time due to increased competition and fees, leading to lower profits in March.
- Cancelled matches resulted in losses due to Polymarket's 50¢ refund policy, netting -$134.
- Planning to rewrite the bot in Rust for improved correctness and speed.