- The SCN Global Flow Monitor focuses on global crude oil trade dynamics and supply chain network behavior.
- It offers disruption scenarios with adjustable parameters like capacity retained, demand and supply elasticities, and time horizon.
- Users can run simulations for shock targets such as collapse, degraded, or insulated conditions, with preset historical analog or custom settings.
- The simulation is a stress test, not a forecast, based on 2025 reported flows from UN Comtrade, with limitations for sanctioned or unreported trade.
- The model uses fluid-stochastic network clearing, Skorokhod inventory dynamics, and endogenous pricing with strategic trade rebalancing.
- Key analytics include market price trends, downstream flow losses, and emergency stockpile drawdown percentages for net-importing countries.
- Capacity-retained settings account for bypass infrastructure like East–West and Habshan–Fujairah pipelines for the Strait of Hormuz.