15 hours ago
- Pollsters predicted a close election but Donald Trump won decisively, marking a red wave that surprised analysts.
- Trump's improvement over 2020 was broad and uniform across demographic groups, driven by dissatisfaction with Biden's economic stewardship.
- He gained ground in swing states, Democratic strongholds like New Jersey, and urban areas including New York City, Florida, and Texas counties.
- The 2024 election is framed as the second pandemic election, with global inflation hurting incumbent parties worldwide.
- Anti-incumbency trends have been strong in the U.S. since 2000, with frequent shifts in control of government.
- Kamala Harris's performance was consistent with expectations given Biden's low approval ratings and global anti-incumbent bias.
- Democrats need to reconsider their cultural and economic messaging, especially to appeal to young and nonwhite men.
- The current political era means every victory is fragile, as incumbents quickly face voter backlash.