a day ago
- Exit polls in the 2004 US election overestimated Kerry's vote, especially in swing states like Ohio and Florida, where actual results favored Bush.
- The discrepancy is attributed to a variant of the Bradley Effect, where voters are reluctant to admit their true choice to pollsters.
- Bush voters may have been less willing to participate in exit polls due to social desirability bias, as elite liberal values (e.g., NPR values) made conservative views seem taboo.
- Pollsters' method of inferring votes from non-respondents based on demographics assumes no correlation between voting choice and willingness to answer, which was likely violated.