Liebreich: The Great Clean Energy Acceleration 2.0 – BloombergNEF
15 hours ago
- #Energy Transition
- #Clean Energy
- #Geopolitics
- The article predicts a 'Great Clean Energy Acceleration 2.0' driven by the conflict in the Gulf and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could peak fossil fuel use before 2030.
- Despite U.S. policy setbacks under Trump, clean energy growth continued domestically and globally, with wind, solar, EVs, and investments doubling since 2022.
- The Strait's closure threatens 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG, impacting Asia heavily, but gas markets may recover faster than oil due to renewable substitution.
- Markets have remained relatively calm, but prolonged closure could push oil prices above $200/barrel, causing economic catastrophe.
- Clean energy adoption surged post-Ukraine invasion; similar acceleration is expected now, especially in Asia to reduce vulnerability.
- Short-term fossil fuel investments may rise, but long-term re-evaluation will favor renewables to avoid price volatility costs.
- EV sales jumped in Europe after the Gulf conflict, showing consumer sensitivity to fuel prices over climate messaging.
- The U.S. attack on Iran may inadvertently accelerate the global shift to clean energy, potentially marking peak fossil fuels.