Spotify Confirms Streaming Fraud After Kalshi Trader Cries Foul

4 hours ago

Caleb Davies, a top Kalshi trader, claims to have earned $1.2 million overall from prediction markets, including $414,000 from Kalshi's culture markets, by analyzing Spotify data.
Davies suspects bot-fueled manipulation of Spotify-related prediction markets, citing Malcolm Todd's song 'Earrings' surging to number one as a highly improbable event.
Spotify confirmed investigating and finding evidence of artificial streaming, adjusting charts by removing over 500,000 fake streams, which moved Todd's song from first to fourth.
Kalshi removed Spotify's logo from its markets and adjusted language at Spotify's request, while investigating the matter, but had already resolved the market based on initial data.
Polymarket denied involvement, noting it did not list Malcolm Todd as an option, and is reviewing streaming manipulation but has not identified any immediate manipulation.
The incident highlights new incentives for streaming fraud in prediction markets, with concerns about susceptibility to manipulation raised by regulatory experts.
Davies has decided to stop trading chart-based markets despite historical gains, citing the manipulation risks.

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