The Defeat of Nuclear Deterrence
2 days ago
- #Military Strategy
- #Nuclear Deterrence
- #Geopolitics
- In June 2025, Ukraine executed Operation Spider's Web, destroying Russian strategic bombers using drones, highlighting the failure of nuclear deterrence to prevent conventional attacks.
- Nuclear weapons are increasingly seen as impotent against sustained conventional or hybrid warfare, as shown by conflicts involving Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel, and India-Pakistan.
- The nuclear taboo remains strong, discouraging actual use, but state and non-state actors are willing to challenge nuclear-armed powers with conventional means.
- Deterrence by denial—through defensive measures like missile systems—is gaining importance over traditional deterrence by retaliation.
- Nuclear powers should invest more in resilience and defense of nuclear facilities rather than just modernizing arsenals, and promote norms against attacking nuclear targets.
- Proliferation risks increase with more nuclear states, as inexperienced handling and accidental escalations could arise, alongside non-state actor threats.
- U.S. allies doubting extended deterrence should strengthen conventional defenses instead of pursuing nuclear weapons, as their deterrent value is waning.
- Global norms, like pledges not to attack nuclear facilities, can help prevent escalation and radiological disasters, benefiting all states.