- The shift from IDEs being central to software development to becoming second-class citizens in the face of AI-driven orchestration.
- Three waves of AI coding tools: Wave 1 (AI as IDE feature), Wave 2 (AI in terminal), Wave 3 (multi-agent desktop control planes).
- Agent control planes coordinate tasks, tools, permissions, context, and review, surpassing IDE capabilities.
- IDEs are not disappearing but are being repositioned as verification and debugging tools.
- The competitive landscape is shifting, with IDE-first companies facing pressure and tech giants like Microsoft and Google adapting strategies.
- Potential counterarguments include deep IDE-agent integration, fragmentation of attention, and security constraints.
- The future battleground is about trust, auditing, and verification in codebases.