A war foretold:how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin's Ukraine plans and why

4 days ago

William Burns, CIA director, warned Putin in November 2021 about disastrous consequences of invading Ukraine.
Putin ignored warnings, focusing on perceived US threats and Russia's strategic vulnerability.
US and UK intelligence accurately predicted Russia's invasion plans, but European allies were skeptical.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy dismissed invasion warnings, fearing economic panic over military preparation.
Putin's decision to invade was likely made in early 2020, with preparations hidden from most of his inner circle.
Detailed Russian war plans included attacks from multiple directions, including Belarus, and assassination attempts on Zelenskyy.
European intelligence services, remembering the Iraq war intelligence failures, doubted the likelihood of a full-scale invasion.
US and UK shared extensive intelligence with allies, but skepticism remained due to obscured sources and methods.
Zelenskyy's last-minute realization of the invasion threat came too late for adequate preparation.
The invasion began on February 24, 2022, with initial underestimations of Ukrainian resistance and overestimations of Russian military effectiveness.
Zelenskyy's leadership during the invasion rallied Ukrainian society, despite earlier failures to heed warnings.
Intelligence failures highlighted the danger of dismissing scenarios based on perceived rationality or impossibility.
Post-invasion, European intelligence services reevaluated their approaches to worst-case scenarios.

Hasty Briefsbeta