How Predictable Are Laws?
2 days ago
- The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and the 401(k) provision are examples where laws had far larger effects than originally anticipated, often due to unintended consequences.
- An AI analysis of 239 federal laws found that about 11% had substantial divergence from expected effects, either much larger or much smaller than predicted.
- Divergences in law effectiveness arise from unexpected behavior by legal operators (courts, prosecutors, future Congresses) and by the broader world (market responses, societal changes).
- Laws are analogous to technology: they create capabilities that can be used in unforeseen ways, or may prove less useful than intended.