Did a US Chess Champion Cheat?
7 hours ago
- #scandal
- #chess
- #statistics
- Chess scandals have a long history, including allegations of cheating by grand masters like Vladimir Kramnik in 2006.
- In 2023, Kramnik accused Hikaru Nakamura of cheating due to an improbable 45.5/46 winning streak in an online blitz tournament.
- Researchers analyzed Nakamura's 3,500+ games and found a 99.6% probability he did not cheat, highlighting flaws in Kramnik's statistical reasoning.
- Initial assumptions about cheating rates significantly impact statistical conclusions, with Nakamura's innocence remaining highly probable even under stricter estimates.
- Kramnik's argument exemplifies the 'prosecutor’s fallacy,' confusing the probability of evidence given innocence with the probability of innocence given evidence.
- Nakamura countered by accusing Kramnik of cherry-picking data, but researchers noted this violates the likelihood principle.
- Cromwell’s rule warns against assigning 0% or 100% probability to events, emphasizing the need for nuanced statistical interpretation.
- The study underscores the importance of critical data analysis to avoid misinterpreting rare events and damaging reputations.