Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets
6 hours ago
- #Insider Trading
- #Blockchain Analysis
- #Prediction Markets
- New accounts on Polymarket placed highly specific, timely bets predicting a US-Iran ceasefire, resulting in hundreds of thousands in profits.
- Bets were made despite escalating Trump rhetoric and few imminent ceasefire signals before the announcement.
- Analysis shows at least 50 new wallets placed substantial 'yes' bets before Trump's ceasefire post at 6:30pm ET.
- One wallet created at 10am ET invested $72,000 at an average 8.8¢ price, cashing out a $200,000 profit.
- Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, earned an estimated $48,500 profit from $31,908 in bets.
- Some profits are delayed as the ceasefire contract is disputed due to ongoing Iran restrictions and missile attacks.
- Blockchain data cannot identify wallet controllers; Polymarket uses proxy smart contracts, allowing multiple accounts per user.
- Similar patterns occurred in past events, like bets before Venezuelan president's capture, raising insider trading concerns.
- Bipartisan legislators propose broadening insider trading definitions to include prediction markets, supported by industry platforms.
- Experts argue regulation is needed to prevent insider trading and maintain market integrity for all traders.