Bitcoin and Quantum Computing

6 hours ago

Bitcoin's current signature schemes are vulnerable to cryptographically-relevant quantum computers (CRQCs).
A successful upgrade to post-quantum cryptography requires a soft fork, wallet updates, and user migration, which is complex and uncertain.
The risk of Bitcoin failing due to a CRQC is the product of the likelihood of a CRQC emerging and the chance Bitcoin fails to upgrade in time.
Example estimates suggest a 5% chance Bitcoin could be broken by 2030, based on a 10% CRQC likelihood and 50% upgrade failure chance.
As an investor, this risk represents a floor for valuing Bitcoin at $0, alongside other threats like security breaches or network attacks.
Users and developers face challenges in choosing PQ signature schemes, managing consensus rules, and motivating ecosystem upgrades.
The author argues that the risk is significant enough to prioritize PQ upgrades now, despite uncertainties and competing priorities.
Common counterarguments include dismissing the threat as FUD, noting broader societal impacts, or assuming Bitcoin will adapt without a clear plan.
The post calls for more technical work, discussion, and community engagement to address the quantum threat proactively.

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