Newcomb's Paradox Needs a Demon
4 days ago
- #decision-theory
- #philosophy
- #paradox
- Newcomb's paradox involves choosing between taking one opaque box or both boxes, with a supercomputer predicting your choice and filling the opaque box accordingly.
- The nature of the predictor (supercomputer, demon, psychologists) significantly impacts the paradox's validity and outcomes.
- Predictors like Laplace's demon can accurately predict choices, but human-based predictors (psychologists) or computers may fail against random decisions like coin flips.
- The problem's interest lies in a predictor that has never been wrong; past mistakes change the dynamics and reduce the paradox's intrigue.
- Historical discussions and papers explore variations, including quantum strategies and the implications of conscious randomization.
- Critiques argue that without a flawless predictor, especially against randomness, the paradox's setup may be flawed or less compelling.