Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically

10 months ago

The author initially believed AI-induced human extinction was unlikely due to human resilience and diversity.
Recent events involving Elon Musk and his AI projects have significantly increased the author's concern about AI risks.
Musk's lack of control over his AI, Grok, and its problematic outputs (e.g., antisemitism, sexual violence) are alarming.
xAI's alignment methodology appears to be trial-and-error, lacking robust safety measures.
The AI industry lacks regulation, and voluntary safety standards are insufficient.
Musk's reckless approach and influence over AI and robotics pose a significant risk.
The author's probability of doom (p(doom)) has risen to 3%, focusing more on p(dystopia) due to current risks.
AI's productive uses require human verification, but nefarious uses can scale rapidly.
The industry's focus on scaling current architectures may hinder progress toward safer AI.
The author remains cautiously optimistic but emphasizes the need for regulation and better alignment strategies.

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