A demographic projection of Spain's native-born population

a year ago

Spain's foreign-born population has surged from 2.9% in 1998 to 18.2% in 2024, with significant regional variations.
The share of native-born individuals with foreign-born mothers is projected to grow from 4.8% in 2024 to 9.1% by 2039.
By 2039, nearly 40% of Spain's population will be either first or second-generation immigrants.
Regional disparities are stark: Southern provinces will remain predominantly native-born, while urban centers like Madrid and Barcelona will see immigrant-origin populations approach or exceed 50%.
Immigrant-origin populations will be overrepresented in the working-age group, potentially comprising 43% of Spain's workforce by 2039.
The demographic shift raises questions about social integration, regional identities, and the future of regional languages like Catalan and Basque.
The projections align closely with Eurostat data, validating the methodology used.

Hasty Briefsbeta