The Sun Never Leaves
15 days ago
- #Emigration
- #Economic History
- #British Empire
- Britain's decline from global hegemony was primarily due to mass emigration, not low GDP per capita or fertility rates.
- Over the 19th century, UK emigration averaged 0.5% of the population annually, with most migrants going to the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
- A counterfactual model estimates that without emigration since 1815, the UK's population today would be over 200 million, compared to the current 70 million.
- Emigration significantly impacted the UK's demographic and economic balance, with a majority of migrants being male, leading to a gender imbalance.
- The US has more people of British descent than the UK itself, suggesting the US might be the true successor to Victorian Britain.
- A larger UK population would have kept it economically competitive with the US, but emigration led to a welfare loss and reduced global public goods production.
- The UK's strategic weakness was its inability to deploy resources simultaneously, with colonies contributing significantly but often too late in conflicts.
- France, with lower emigration, declined more steeply in power, highlighting that the British Empire's issue was low productivity in non-settler territories.
- The UK's social divisions and semi-centralized socialist economy post-WW2 contributed to continued emigration until the mid-1990s.