East Asian air cleanup likely contributed to acceleration in global warming
10 months ago
- #global warming
- #aerosol emissions
- #climate change
- Global surface warming has accelerated since around 2010, coinciding with East Asian efforts to reduce air pollution.
- A 75% reduction in East Asian sulfate emissions partially unmasks greenhouse gas-driven warming, contributing to a global mean warming of 0.07 ± 0.05 °C.
- The warming is sufficient to be a main driver of the increased global warming rate since 2010.
- North-Pacific warming and top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance observed are consistent with model simulations.
- East Asian aerosol cleanup is likely a key contributor to recent global warming acceleration and Pacific warming trends.
- The study uses simulations from eight Earth System Models under the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP).
- Aerosols have cooled the global surface by 0.4 °C, partially masking greenhouse gas-driven warming.
- Recent reductions in East Asian SO2 emissions (~20 Tg/year) have led to significant AOD decreases and increased surface solar radiation.
- The geographical pattern of warming corresponds to observed increases in warming rates, particularly in the North Pacific.
- Other factors like methane increases and shipping emission reductions have smaller impacts compared to East Asian aerosol reductions.