China's CO2 emissions have now been 'flat or falling' for 21 months
3 months ago
- #Climate Change
- #China Emissions
- #Renewable Energy
- China’s CO2 emissions fell by 1% in Q4 2025, leading to an estimated 0.3% decline for the full year.
- Emissions have been 'flat or falling' since March 2024, marking a nearly two-year trend.
- Fossil fuel emissions rose by 0.1% in 2025, but were offset by a 7% drop in cement-related CO2.
- Key sector declines: transport (-3%), power (-1.5%), building materials (-7%); chemicals industry grew 12%.
- Renewable energy surged: solar (+43%), wind (+14%), nuclear (+8%); coal generation fell by 1.9%.
- Energy storage capacity grew by 75GW, outpacing peak demand growth (55GW).
- China’s carbon intensity fell by 4.7% in 2025 but missed the 14th five-year plan target of 18%.
- To meet Paris Agreement goals, China needs a 23% carbon intensity cut by 2030.
- Chemical industry emissions rose sharply (12%), driven by coal and oil use.
- China’s power sector saw record clean energy growth, but grid congestion led to curtailment issues.
- Official plans aim for coal consumption to peak by 2027, but chemical industry expansion may delay this.
- China’s 2030 targets for wind/solar (30% of generation) may fall short of Paris commitments unless exceeded.