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The Diffusion Dilemma

9 days ago
https://arenamag.com/articles/the-diffusion-dilemma
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  • #general-purpose-technologies
  • #innovation-adoption
  • #technology-diffusion
  • The tractor, introduced in 1892, marked a shift from animal to machine power but took decades to diffuse widely, illustrating the 'diffusion deficit'.
  • Everett Rogers' diffusion theory highlights five adopter categories and factors like relative advantage and compatibility that influence technology adoption.
  • General-purpose technologies (GPTs) like electricity and IT require complementary innovations and skills, leading to delayed but transformative impacts.
  • Industrial reorganization is crucial for GPT adoption, as seen in the shift from steam to electric motors in factories.
  • The 'productivity paradox' of IT in the 1970s-80s shows that initial productivity drops can precede significant gains once complementary innovations emerge.
  • Current AI research focuses on AGI, but diffusion strategies like 'wrappers' (e.g., Manus) are essential for real-world impact.
  • AI-native organizations and interoperable frameworks are needed to fully harness AI, similar to past GPTs like electricity and IT.
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