Recession Watch
a year ago
- #tariffs
- #recession
- #economic indicators
- Author goes on 'recession watch' for the 4th time in 20+ years, citing concerns over tariff policies and other economic missteps.
- Previous recession watches were in early 2007 (housing bust/financial crisis) and March 2020 (pandemic), both correctly predicting recessions.
- Current concerns include tariffs, cuts to basic research spending, and inflammatory rhetoric affecting international trade and tourism.
- JPMorgan forecasts a US recession in late 2025 due to tariffs, predicting GDP contraction and rising unemployment.
- Despite concerns, the author notes the US economy's resilience and is not currently predicting a recession.
- Key indicators to watch include new home sales, housing starts, residential investment, yield curve, vehicle sales, and unemployment claims.