Prediction of incident heart failure in individuals without prior cardiovascular disease: the SCORE2-HF risk model - PubMed
14 hours ago
- #heart failure
- #cardiovascular disease
- #risk prediction
- Development of SCORE2-HF, a risk model for predicting incident heart failure (HF) in European adults over 40 without prior cardiovascular disease.
- Model derived from 25 prospective cohorts (611,778 individuals, 21,818 HF events) and validated in three external cohorts (1,336,824 participants, 36,841 HF events).
- Key risk factors included age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, BMI, kidney function, and type 2 diabetes.
- Model recalibrated using Europe-wide WHO statistics and health records (>36 million individuals, 515,466 HF events).
- C-indices for validation cohorts ranged from 0.827 to 0.874, indicating strong predictive accuracy.
- Risk varied significantly by individual factors and European region, e.g., 10-year risk for 70-year-olds with four risk factors ranged from 20-24% in low-risk regions to 59% in very high-risk regions.
- SCORE2-HF aims to improve identification of high-risk individuals for HF prevention across Europe.