My 2026 Open Social Web Predictions
4 months ago
- #Social Media
- #Decentralization
- #Predictions
- Bluesky will cross 60 million registered users in 2026.
- The ActivityPub Fediverse (excluding Threads) will cross 15 million registered users.
- Threads will pass 500 million monthly active users but full federation won't ship in 2026.
- Ghost’s ActivityPub integration will bring 75,000+ new federated accounts to the Fediverse.
- WordPress-based federated accounts will cross 50,000.
- BridgyFed will shift to 'opt-out' for Bluesky users bridging to ActivityPub.
- At least one fully independent ATProto stack will achieve viability in 2026.
- Mastodon gGmbH will hit key sustainability milestones in 2026.
- Bluesky PBC will raise another round of funding in 2026.
- The first 'ATProto-native' social app that is NOT microblogging will cross 100,000 users.
- Flipboard’s Surf app will launch its 1.0 version in 2026 and cross 1 million downloads.
- Fedify will power the federation layer for at least one mid-sized social platform.
- Fediscovery will ship in a stable Mastodon release in 2026.
- The new 'ActivityRank' algorithm in Loops will prove ethical recommendations and decentralization can coexist.
- ATProto will advance from Internet Drafts to an official IETF Working Group in 2026.
- A well-known digital-native media publication will federate via ActivityPub in 2026.
- At least one major news organization will announce it is leaving X/Twitter entirely.
- At least one major national government or major city will launch an official presence on BOTH Bluesky AND the ActivityPub Fediverse in 2026.
- Nostr ↔ ATProto ↔ ActivityPub three-way bridging becomes functional by end of 2026.
- AltStore will be live with Federation features in at least 5 countries by end of 2026.
- Loops will become the third most-used Fediverse software by MAU by end of 2026.
- PieFed will emerge as the most feature-rich Threadiverse platform by end of 2026.
- More laws akin to Utah’s Digital Choice Act will pass or advance.