Why plane turbulence is becoming more frequent – and more severe
9 months ago
- #aviation
- #climate-change
- #turbulence
- Andrew Davies experienced severe turbulence on a flight, describing it as being on a rollercoaster with injuries and devastation in the cabin.
- Turbulence-related deaths are rare, but injuries are more common, with 207 severe injuries in the US since 2009.
- Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of turbulence, with projections of doubling or tripling severe turbulence in the coming decades.
- Severe turbulence is defined as exerting more than 1.5g-force on the body, with around 5,000 incidents annually globally.
- The North Atlantic route has seen a 55% increase in severe turbulence over the past 40 years.
- Three main causes of turbulence: convective (clouds/thunderstorms), orographic (mountainous areas), and clear-air (wind changes).
- Climate change is driving up both convective and clear-air turbulence, with warmer atmospheres leading to more intense thunderstorms.
- Clear-air turbulence, caused by disturbed air around jet streams, is expected to rise due to climate change.
- Aircraft wings are designed to withstand turbulence, with wings capable of bending up to 25 degrees before breaking.
- Turbulence has economic costs for airlines, ranging from £180,000 to £1.5 million annually, including maintenance and compensation costs.
- Forecasting turbulence has improved, with about 75% of clear-air turbulence now correctly forecasted.
- Airlines are taking measures to reduce turbulence-related injuries, such as ending cabin service earlier and avoiding serving hot meals.
- Innovative solutions like owl-inspired wing designs and AI turbulence cancellation are being explored but are not yet ready for commercial aircraft.
- Despite increasing turbulence, experts reassure that it is generally more annoying than dangerous, though passengers are advised to keep seat belts fastened.