China Appears to Be Shutting Down Purchases of U.S. Soybeans
10 hours ago
- #soybean exports
- #trade war
- #US-China trade
- China has not purchased U.S. soybeans for two consecutive months (June and July 2024) and has no orders for the upcoming peak season.
- U.S. soybean exports to China have dropped by 51.29% ($2.6 billion) through July, while overall U.S. exports to China are down 20.61% ($16.50 billion).
- China is sourcing soybeans from Brazil (95% of early-season needs) and Argentina, bypassing the U.S. as the peak season approaches.
- Other U.S. exports to China, including crude oil, passenger vehicles, and liquid natural gas, have also seen significant declines.
- The U.S.-China trade war has escalated under Trump, with threats of high tariffs (up to 145%) and retaliatory measures from China (up to 125%).
- Trump has twice paused new tariffs in 2024, with the latest extension set to expire in early November.
- China has shifted trade partners, buying more oil from Russia (under Western sanctions) and soybeans from Brazil and Argentina.
- The U.S. soybean peak season (October-January) historically sees 50-70% of exports going to China, but this may drop to zero in 2024.
- Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil (with exemptions) and is preparing a $20 million aid package for Argentina, both linked to political alliances.
- The trade war has reduced the U.S. trade deficit with China, though the overall U.S. deficit continues to rise.