Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

6 hours ago

SpaceX's IPO valuation is $1.77 trillion, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $1.7 trillion as the largest in history.
Only about 4% ($75 billion) of the valuation is publicly sold; 96% remains locked with insiders.
Revenue projections show SpaceX quadrupling from $4.6B in 2022 to $18.7B in 2025.
To justify the valuation, Morgan Stanley forecasts $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040, requiring a 41.5% annual growth rate.
Comparisons show SpaceX's growth rate is lower than Tesla's 62%, but starting from a much larger base.
Historical data indicates a trend where larger companies grow slower, making SpaceX's projected growth statistically outlier.
The forecast assumes high EBITDA margins and revenue exceeding historical benchmarks.
Index fund mechanisms force purchases due to Nasdaq rules, potentially inflating prices before insider lock-ups expire.
The IPO's coherence may serve to facilitate index rebalancing rather than reflecting long-term viability.
The market's valuation of SpaceX appears influenced by Elon Musk's success with Tesla, raising questions about extrapolation.

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