WMO: Likelihood Increases of El Niño
4 hours ago
- #Climate Forecast
- #El Niño
- #ENSO
- El Niño conditions are likely to return as early as May–July 2026, with high confidence in onset and potential for a strong event, though spring predictability limits certainty.
- El Niño typically warms global climate, impacts regional rainfall/drought patterns (e.g., increased rain in parts of South America, drought in Australia), and can amplify extreme weather due to climate change.
- For May-June-July 2026, above-normal land temperatures are expected nearly globally, especially in southern North America, Europe, and Northern Africa, with strong regional rainfall variations.
- Seasonal forecasts guide preparedness in agriculture, water, energy, and health; WMO updates in late May 2026 will provide robust guidance, supported by regional outlooks and UN/humanitarian briefings.
- As of early April 2026, ENSO is neutral with near-average Pacific SSTs, but models predict El Niño emergence in summer/autumn 2026, driven by accumulating subsurface heat.