Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the moon may rise to 30 per cent
10 days ago
- #space
- #asteroid
- #JWST
- Astronomers have a small window in February 2026 to observe asteroid 2024 YR4 using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).
- There is currently a 4% chance of 2024 YR4 hitting the moon in 2032, which could endanger satellites and lunar infrastructure.
- If JWST observations in 2026 increase the impact probability to over 30%, space agencies may need to act quickly.
- Deflection options, including a nuclear detonation near the asteroid, have been considered but no missions are currently planned.
- The European Space Agency (ESA) will wait until 2026 observations before deciding on any action.
- JWST's unique orbit allows it to observe 2024 YR4 when ground-based telescopes cannot, but the observation will be challenging due to the asteroid's faintness.
- There is an 80% chance the lunar collision risk drops below 1% after JWST observations, but a 5% chance it rises above 30%.