Khamenei Trade
6 hours ago
- #insider-trading
- #Iran-strikes
- #prediction-markets
- US and Israeli forces killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei over the weekend.
- Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket saw over $255 million in bets related to Khamenei's killing and strikes in Iran.
- Bubblemaps identified insider trading on Polymarket, with $1.2 million made by suspected insiders betting on US strikes.
- Kalshi clarified that its markets do not settle on death, resolving based on last traded price before confirmed death reports.
- Polymarket had 187 Iran-related markets, some controversial for hinging on death, raising ethical concerns.
- Democratic senators called for action against prediction markets incentivizing injury or death, citing Polymarket contracts.
- Kalshi reimbursed fees and losses, citing unclear user experience, while Polymarket faced criticism for market resolutions.
- Some users defended Kalshi's rules, while others protested the handling of their bets.