Civilization Is Not the Default. Violence Is
7 hours ago
- #civilization
- #geopolitics
- #history
- Peace and development are deeply linked; civilizational decline followed Rome's collapse due to fragmentation and violence, as seen in the early Middle Ages.
- Feudal Europe experienced extreme instability, with declining population, collapsed trade, and local reliance on kinship and subsistence farming after the Carolingian Empire fell.
- Recovery began with the second feudal age (1050–1200), marked by peace, demographic growth, trade revival, and the rise of centralized kingdoms and bureaucracies.
- Civilization depends on trust between strangers enabled by a monopoly on violence, which creates public goods like law, infrastructure, and commerce, as seen in the Roman Empire.
- The Pax Americana facilitated global prosperity over 80 years through institutions like the dollar, US Navy, and WTO, reducing poverty and enabling economic integration.
- Current challenges include erosion of the rules-based order, loss of institutional legitimacy (e.g., UN, WHO), and a return to realpolitik where force dominates international relations.
- A multipolar world is emerging, with the US, China, India, and others forming spheres of influence, likely leading to instability without a dominant enforcer.
- Western ideals like liberalism and Enlightenment values are under threat internally from identity politics and externally from illiberal models like China's, risking the foundations of free societies.
- Civilization is not default; violence is. Historical transitions, such as from feudalism to the Renaissance, show that collapse can lead to rebuilding, offering hope amid current shifts.