Iran War Cost Tracker

4 hours ago

Three-phase bottom-up cost model for military operations: initial strikes (~$380M/day, Days 0–3), sustained operations (~$220M/day, Days 3–10), and air dominance/ISR-heavy phase (~$155M/day, Day 10+).
Seven cost components per phase: personnel ($40M/day), naval forces ($22M/day), aircraft operations ($48M/day), fuel & logistics ($15M/day), non-tracked ordnance ($35M/day), C4ISR/cyber/space ($10M/day), and overhead/unmodeled costs ($50M/day).
Naval and aircraft operations combined cost ~$70M/day during active phases.
Discrete one-time costs (e.g., aircraft losses, high-value missiles) tracked separately and added to total.
Munitions costs based on DoD procurement rates; actual replacement costs 10–20% higher due to surge production.
Overhead category captures 60–75% of true costs; remainder includes classified programs, contractor personnel, allied coordination, and other friction costs.
Excluded long-term costs: veteran healthcare (2–4× direct war costs), economic opportunity costs, energy market disruption (~15% oil price increase), allied expenditures, and environmental remediation.
True taxpayer cost significantly higher than modeled due to omitted factors.

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