Clear Thinking
16 days ago
- #self-improvement
- #clear-thinking
- #decision-making
- Intuition is suitable for low-impact decisions, but systematic thinking is crucial for high-impact ones.
- Decision quality is independent of outcome quality; good outcomes don't always mean good decisions.
- Self-serving bias leads us to credit success to our abilities and blame failures on external factors.
- Biological factors like hunger, sleep, and time of day significantly affect decision-making.
- Emotional, ego, social, and inertia defaults influence our judgments and reactions.
- Creating automatic rules (e.g., 'Never estimate on the spot') helps prevent poor decisions.
- Problem definition and evaluating multiple options are key steps in decision-making.
- Second-order thinking involves predicting consequences by asking 'and then what?'.
- Assess decisions based on reversibility and consequences: ASAP for low-cost, ALAP for high-cost.
- Documenting decisions and reflecting on mistakes improves future judgment.