Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.7%
a day ago
- #delinquency-crisis
- #commercial-real-estate
- #extend-and-pretend
- Office and multifamily commercial real estate (CRE) delinquency rates hit record highs in August 2024, with office CMBS delinquencies at 11.7% and multifamily at 6.9%.
- Extend-and-pretend and forbearance deals are widely used to delay defaults, pushing problems into the future rather than resolving them now.
- Older office buildings face higher vacancy rates due to a 'flight to quality' toward newer, more attractive office spaces.
- Multifamily CRE delinquencies are driven by overbuilding, higher interest rates, and rising operational costs (taxes, insurance, maintenance).
- Banks hold a limited portion of CRE debt, with most exposure borne by investors (CMBS, CLOs) and government-backed entities (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac).
- The Fed's minimal exposure to CRE suggests the sector won’t pose a systemic risk to the banking system.
- Large-scale property extensions, like the $1.04B Manhattan office mortgage, highlight the extend-and-pretend strategy in action.
- Immigration crackdowns and reduced demand are exacerbating rental market pressures, particularly in multifamily housing.
- Investors (pension funds, insurers, REITs) face significant losses, while banks have largely offloaded risky loans.
- The CRE reset involves price corrections (e.g., 20-70% discounts in office properties) but residential markets remain frozen at inflated prices.