The Enshittification of History

8 hours ago

The author admits to being a poor futurologist, reflecting on failed predictions and updating their forecasting ratio due to unpredictable global events.
Key missed predictions include the re-election of a corrupt U.S. president, media consolidation by billionaires, the Ukraine war, Israel's actions, and the impact of LLMs on critical thinking.
The Stross Ratio for 10-year predictions is revised to 60% present today, 10% predictable, and 30% unpredictable, highlighting increased uncertainty.
Expected future developments include the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, a U.S. war with Iran, an AI bubble burst, and a global shift to renewable energy led by China.
Capitalism is critiqued as enshittified and in crisis, with potential for socialist reforms or violent upheaval, echoing Marxist predictions.
The author avoids visiting the U.S. due to visa policies requiring social media scrutiny, reflecting political and ideological tensions.
Comments discuss climate impacts like El Niño, fertilizer shortages, energy transitions, and economic warning signs such as utility payment delinquencies.

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