A lot of population numbers are fake
9 days ago
- #global-demographics
- #census-accuracy
- #population-data
- Papua New Guinea's official population estimate of 9.4 million in 2022 was based on an extrapolation from a 2000 census, as the 2011 census was deemed unreliable.
- A leaked UN report suggested PNG's actual population might be closer to 17 million, double the official estimate, causing embarrassment and economic reassessment.
- Nigeria's population figures are highly politicized, with censuses historically marred by fraud to influence political representation and oil revenue distribution.
- Many countries, especially in Africa, lack reliable census data, leading to wide-ranging population estimates (e.g., DRC: 73–104 million; Afghanistan: 38–50 million).
- Satellite-based population estimates face challenges, such as inability to count individuals inside buildings and discrepancies between different methodologies (e.g., Meta vs. WorldPop in Nigeria).
- Global population counts for individual countries, particularly in the Global South, are often inaccurate, but large-scale conspiracies (e.g., 'billions of fake people') are implausible.
- Statistical capacity in poorer nations is weak, with censuses frequently underfunded, politically manipulated, or outright fabricated.
- Epistemic humility is warranted: while global population totals are likely roughly accurate, many national figures remain uncertain.