Magical Systems Thinking
6 hours ago
- #policy-failures
- #complexity
- #systems-thinking
- Systems thinking fails because systems resist changes imposed upon them, often fighting back against attempts to control or redesign them.
- Historical examples like HealthCare.gov, Australia’s disability reforms, and the UK’s Contracts for Difference show how complex systems often defy expectations and escalate costs or create new problems.
- Jay Wright Forrester’s World Model predicted economic and environmental collapse by 2025, but real-world outcomes (increased GDP, forest cover, and reduced pollution deaths) proved his model wrong due to unforeseen adaptations and innovations.
- Le Chatelier’s Principle in chemistry—systems resist changes to maintain equilibrium—applies to human systems, explaining why interventions often backfire or create unintended consequences.
- John Gall’s 'Gall’s Law' states that successful complex systems evolve from simple, working systems, while those designed from scratch fail. Examples include the electric grid and semiconductor industry.
- Case studies like the US ICBM program, Operation Warp Speed, and Estonia’s digital government demonstrate how starting small and bypassing bureaucracy leads to success.
- AI-generated systems (e.g., Google’s codebase) risk repeating past mistakes by ignoring the inherent unpredictability and resistance of complex systems.