Notes on the Hantavirus Outbreak
17 hours ago
- A cruise ship near Cabo Verde is experiencing an Andes virus outbreak, raising concerns about human-to-human transmission.
- Andes virus causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) with a case fatality rate of 30-60%.
- Previous outbreaks, like the 2018-2019 Chubut outbreak, showed an R0 of 2.12 and significant super-spreading potential.
- Incubation period ranges from 1 to 8 weeks, complicating containment efforts.
- Reasons for optimism include historical containment of HPS cases, limited human-to-human transmission outside rare outbreaks, and potential social factors influencing R0.
- The author estimates a 70% probability of fewer than 300 deaths and 90% probability of fewer than 1,000 deaths from this outbreak.