China's CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months
11 days ago
- #renewable energy
- #CO2 emissions
- #China
- China’s CO2 emissions have been flat or declining for 18 months, starting from March 2024.
- Electric vehicle adoption led to a 5% drop in transport fuel CO2 emissions, while cement and steel production also saw declines.
- Power sector emissions remained flat despite a 6.1% increase in electricity demand, thanks to significant growth in solar (46%) and wind (11%) generation.
- China added 240GW of solar and 61GW of wind capacity in the first nine months of 2025, setting a new renewable record.
- Oil demand in transport fell by 5%, but surged by 10% in other sectors, driven by chemical industry expansion.
- China is on track to miss its 2025 carbon intensity target, requiring steeper reductions to meet 2030 goals.
- Chemical industry growth is pushing up oil demand, with plastics production increasing by 12%.
- China’s emissions in 2025 could either slightly rise or fall, depending on Q4 developments.
- The government’s 2035 target allows for a late emissions peak, potentially incentivizing short-term increases.
- Clean energy growth must exceed 200GW annually to meet climate commitments without drastic demand slowdowns.