AI: Great Expectations
13 days ago
- #neural networks
- #AI history
- #technology hype
- The article reflects on the cyclical nature of hype in AI, with past examples like robots, expert systems, and neural networks failing to meet initial grand expectations.
- Highlights the optimism of the author in 1988 about AI's potential, tempered by an awareness of the hype surrounding new technologies.
- Discusses historical predictions about AI, such as machines acting as stenographers and translators, noting that while directionally correct, they underestimated the time and technological advancements required.
- Mentions the concept of Amara's Law, which states that the effects of technology are overestimated in the short term and underestimated in the long term.
- Reflects on the evolution of neural networks and the gap between early expectations and the reality of their development and application.
- Emphasizes that AI is not magic but the result of incremental advancements and the development of tools and methodologies over time.