Climate models reveal human activity may be locking SWest into permanent drought
10 days ago
- #drought
- #PDO
- #climate change
- Human activity is increasingly driving drought more intensely than previously understood.
- The southwestern U.S. has been in a historic megadrought for much of the past two decades, linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
- New research suggests the PDO is now strongly influenced by human factors since the 1950s, delaying a wetter phase.
- Warmer air holds more moisture, leading to wet areas getting wetter and dry regions becoming drier, intensifying droughts.
- Drought is emerging as one of the most immediate and severe consequences of climate change, affecting ecosystems, economies, and food security.
- Climate models have struggled to accurately predict rainfall changes due to complex interactions between wind patterns and small-scale processes.
- Human influences, including greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols, have driven shifts in the PDO, contributing to current drought conditions.
- Geological records from 6,000 years ago show similar temperature patterns and widespread drought during a period of high temperatures.
- A slowdown in Atlantic Ocean currents, expected due to global warming, could lead to severe drying in the Amazon and other tropical regions.
- Confronting drought requires rethinking water management, agricultural policy, and adaptation strategies, with better predictions using advanced climate models.