Destroying Asteroid 2024 YR4 Is the Best Option to Stop It from Hitting the Moon
11 hours ago
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- Asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially thought to have a 3% chance of hitting Earth, but refined models now show a 4% chance of hitting the Moon in December 2032.
- A collision with the Moon could create a debris field, increasing micrometeoroid impacts on Earth by up to 1,000 times the normal rate for a few days, posing risks to satellites and astronauts.
- Two main options to prevent impact: deflection (changing its orbit) or destruction (breaking it into smaller pieces or using a nuclear explosion).
- Deflection requires knowing the asteroid's mass, which is uncertain (estimates range from 51 million kg to 711 million kg). A reconnaissance mission in 2028 could help, but time is tight.
- Existing missions like OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, or Janus could potentially be repurposed for reconnaissance, but they would need to abandon their original targets.
- Destruction could involve kinetic impact (like DART) or a nuclear explosion. A 1-megaton nuke could disrupt the asteroid, though this option has political and technical challenges.
- A decision on mitigation must be made soon, as mission planning and launch windows are limited.