The US Economy Was Supposed to Be in a Recession by Now. What Happened?
17 days ago
- #Economic Resilience
- #US Economy
- #Trump Tariffs
- The US economy was expected to enter a recession due to Trump's tariffs and policies, but it has remained resilient.
- Trump's tariffs have been inconsistent, frequently announced and then delayed or reversed, making their impact hard to measure.
- Despite high tariff rates, the US economy's size and resilience have mitigated severe damage, likened to 'Rasputin economy'.
- The Federal Reserve, under Jerome Powell, has countered tariff-induced inflation by maintaining high interest rates.
- Businesses initially stockpiled goods and absorbed costs to delay tariff effects, but these measures are unsustainable long-term.
- Signs of economic strain are emerging, including rising core goods prices, declining manufacturing surveys, and slowing job growth in certain sectors.
- The full impact of tariffs may take months or years to fully manifest, with potential long-term damage to US growth.