More on whether useful quantum computing is "imminent"
4 months ago
- #hardware progress
- #quantum computing
- #cryptography
- The author has reversed their stance on the imminence of scalable quantum computing, now believing it to be plausible due to recent experimental milestones.
- Keynote talk 'Why I Think Quantum Computing Works' highlighted optimism, focusing on experimental achievements rather than broadening quantum speedups.
- Q2B conference provided insights into the current state of quantum computing, with notable talks from Ryan Babbush and John Preskill.
- Quantinuum showcased recent successes, while the author participated in a podcast discussing the proximity to fault-tolerant quantum computing.
- Two main approaches showing promise are trapped ions (Quantinuum, Oxford Ionics) and superconducting qubits (Google, IBM), with neutral atoms (QuEra, Infleqtion, Atom Computing) also making strides.
- The author maintains confidence in the principles of quantum computing theory but remains uncertain about the timeline and leading hardware approach.
- 2025 exceeded expectations in hardware progress, with multiple platforms achieving >99.9% fidelity two-qubit gates, nearing the threshold for fault-tolerance.
- Main applications of quantum computing remain quantum physics simulation, cryptography breaking, and modest benefits for optimization and machine learning.
- A warning was issued about the eventual cessation of public estimates on qubit and gate requirements for breaking cryptosystems, urging migration to post-quantum cryptosystems.
- The author faced backlash from a Twitter user for criticizing IonQ and other quantum companies, accused of having ulterior motives.