Iran Is Only the Beginning

17 hours ago

Iran's strategy focuses on survival rather than winning a conventional war, leveraging its size, population, and strategic position in global energy flows.
Unlike Serbia or Libya, Iran has a dispersed missile and drone arsenal and can cause deep chaos by disrupting oil shipments and destroying infrastructure in the Gulf.
A sustained disruption could remove a third of global seaborne oil, impacting the global south and Gulf countries the most, where energy and food systems rely on Gulf hydrocarbons.
Iran's potential to cause regional chaos is a pressure tactic, aiming to change the regional dynamics even if it doesn't hold out as long as Serbia or Gaza.
Israeli discourse suggests that after dealing with Iran and Hezbollah, the focus may shift to Sunni extremism, with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan seen as future strategic problems.
India is signaling interest in joining an emerging anti-resistance coalition, seeking technology, intelligence, and leverage in the shifting geopolitical landscape.
The outcome of the campaign against Iran could influence global perceptions of military coercion, potentially making China appear as a necessary broker for restraint in a chaotic periphery.

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