How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
6 hours ago
- #researcher updates
- #AGI timelines
- #AI forecasting
- Tracking AGI timelines involves organizations like AI Futures, Metaculus, and Epochs.
- Researchers' updated forecasts show shifting AGI predictions over time.
- AGI definition used: 'Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans.'
- From 2023 to 2025, most forecasters shortened AGI timelines, except Tamay Besilogru.
- During 2025, only Benjamin Todd predicted earlier AGI; others like Daniel Kokotajlo, Eli Lifland, Metaculus, Dario Amodei, and Peter Wildeford pushed timelines out.
- From January 2026 to April 2026, all forecasters, including the author, updated to predict AGI sooner.
- Trends: ChatGPT era led to earlier updates, xAI/Meta/Gemini era to later updates, Anthropic era back to earlier updates.
- Bayesian reasoning suggests forecasters shouldn't predict update directions; intuitions about future updates may indicate need for immediate adjustments.
- FutureSearch tool allows users to simulate forecasting with AI researchers.