Decide Now; We Won't Know More Later Re UFOs
16 days ago
- #alien encounters
- #UFO analysis
- #decision theory
- The article outlines a four-stage process for analyzing UFO reports to determine the likelihood of alien encounters.
- Stage 1 involves estimating the probability that each UFO report is an actual alien encounter versus human error or hoaxes.
- Stage 2 categorizes reports (e.g., saucer-shaped, high acceleration) and aggregates probabilities to assess the likelihood of alien encounters per category.
- Stage 3 uses these probabilities alongside theories of cosmology, biology, and sociality to infer alien features, motivations, and origins.
- Stage 4 combines alien feature distributions with human preferences to consider potential actions (e.g., broadcasting to aliens, defense strategies).
- The UFO/UAP community has focused heavily on stages 1 and 2, avoiding stages 3 and 4 to avoid ridicule and gain credibility.
- The author argues that stages 3 and 4 are crucial for decision-making and should not be delayed, as future data is unlikely to significantly change conclusions.
- The article suggests that if UFO reports cannot inform important decisions now, they likely never will, implying the study may only satisfy curiosity.
- External references (e.g., Metabunk, xkcd) argue that most UFO sightings are misidentifications or illusions, with no conclusive evidence of alien encounters.