Modeling Cycles of Grift with Evolutionary Game Theory
3 days ago
- #Fraud Cycles
- #Grift Dynamics
- #Evolutionary Game Theory
- The article discusses the cyclical nature of grift (fraud) throughout history, from the Great Depression to modern-day scams like crypto rug pulls and MLMs.
- It introduces Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT) as a framework to model these cycles, focusing on three strategies: Grifters, Skeptics, and Marks.
- The GSM model (Grifter, Skeptic, Mark) is presented with a payoff matrix showing interactions and outcomes between these strategies.
- Replicator dynamics are used to simulate population changes over time, revealing non-transitive cycles where no single strategy dominates permanently.
- The model contrasts with the Hawks, Doves, & Retaliators (HDR) model, which converges to a stable equilibrium, unlike the cyclical behavior of GSM.
- The article concludes that grift is inherently cyclical, with periods of high grift leading to increased skepticism, followed by eventual forgetting and renewed vulnerability.
- While the model is simplified, it captures the essence of cyclical fraud dynamics, suggesting we may be nearing 'peak grift' with a future rise in skepticism.