Don't be blinded by the web. The world is stagnating (2011)
a day ago
- #economic-stagnation
- #industrial-policy
- #technological-innovation
- Grandfather's era (1900s) saw rapid technological advancements like electricity, cars, and penicillin, which were industrialized, creating wealth and jobs.
- Author's experience (1960s onwards) lacks similar transformative changes; incremental tech advances but no fundamental lifestyle shifts.
- Tyler Cowen's 'The Great Stagnation' argues post-WWII boom relied on industrializing pre-1940 inventions; today's 'low-hanging fruit' is depleted.
- Modern productivity gains come from layoffs or offshoring, not new industries; tech giants create few jobs compared to past manufacturing.
- Other wealth drivers (land, education) are declining; US employment recovery post-recession now takes years vs. months in the 1960s.
- Cowen underestimates potential for new innovations (energy, health, transport) and creative destruction from digitalization (e.g., 'manuservice' firms like Apple).
- Inequality and finance-sector excesses harm growth by undermining education and taxing enterprise; emerging economies boost global growth using existing tech.
- Western policymakers prioritized deregulation over innovation ecosystems; Pfizer's R&D decline reflects lack of supportive investment ecology.
- Governments are reluctantly shifting from market-only dogma to active roles in fostering innovation (e.g., UK energy market redesign for renewables).