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I Stopped Being a Climate Catastrophist
6 months ago
- The author, Ted Nordhaus, reflects on his past views about climate change, admitting he no longer believes in the catastrophic scenarios he once endorsed, such as the collapse of the Amazon or resource wars triggered by climate change.
- Nordhaus highlights that projections of extreme warming (e.g., 5 degrees by 2100) were based on implausible assumptions about population growth, economic growth, and technological stagnation, which have not materialized.
- Current estimates suggest worst-case warming by the end of the century is around 3 degrees or less, yet the climate advocacy community has shifted its focus to catastrophizing these lower levels of warming.
- Despite global warming, mortality from climate and weather extremes has significantly decreased due to improved infrastructure, technology, and economic development, which mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.
- Nordhaus critiques the climate movement's focus on attributing present-day extreme weather events to climate change, arguing that natural variability and socio-economic factors play a much larger role in disaster outcomes.
- The author questions the plausibility of catastrophic tipping points, such as the collapse of the Gulf Stream or rapid ice sheet disintegration, noting these processes would unfold over centuries, not decades.
- Nordhaus points out the social and professional incentives within the climate advocacy community to maintain catastrophic narratives, as dissenting views are often marginalized or penalized.
- The article concludes by arguing that the case for clean energy and innovation does not require catastrophic climate rhetoric, as historical trends show a natural progression toward cleaner technologies independent of climate fears.
Record leap in CO2 fuels fears of accelerating global heating
6 months ago
- Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2024, surging by 3.5 parts per million to 424ppm.
- Factors contributing to the rise include continued fossil fuel burning, increased wildfires, and potential weakening of natural carbon sinks.
- Scientists warn that oceans and land-based carbon sinks may be becoming less effective at absorbing CO2 due to global heating.
- Wildfire emissions in the Americas hit historic levels in 2024, the hottest year on record.
- Methane and nitrous oxide levels also rose to record highs in 2024, with concerns over increased methane production in wetlands.
- The WMO emphasizes the need for sustained greenhouse gas monitoring and urgent emission reductions to mitigate climate impacts.
Weather disasters limit prosperity, also for many industrialised countries
6 months ago
- Weather disasters are increasingly costing the world's largest economies, with losses significantly higher in eight of the top ten industrialized nations compared to the 1980s, particularly in the USA, Germany, and India.
- The analysis highlights how weather extremes are eroding economic prosperity, with prevention investments being more cost-effective than post-disaster rebuilding.
- The USA, Germany, and India reported the highest mean losses relative to Gross National Income (GNI) over the past five years, with the USA seeing a fivefold increase since the 1980s.
- Prevention measures, such as flood protection in China, have successfully reduced losses, demonstrating the value of proactive investment.
- The insurance gap varies by country, with some like China and Brazil having very high uninsured losses, while others like the USA and Germany have lower gaps.
- Climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent and intense, as seen in events like the 2021 Ahr Valley floods in Germany and the 2024 floods in Brazil.
- Different regions face distinct challenges: North America with tropical cyclones and severe thunderstorms, Europe with floods and winter storms, and Asia with typhoons and floods.
- The analysis underscores the growing economic burden of weather disasters and the urgent need for enhanced prevention and adaptation strategies.
Why the Coal Addiction Won't End Anytime Soon
6 months ago
- Global coal use reached a record high in 2024, driven by demand in emerging Asian economies like China and India.
- Despite commitments to reduce coal use, many countries, especially in Asia, continue to rely heavily on coal for power generation and industrial growth.
- China alone accounts for about 30% of global coal consumption, primarily for its manufacturing industry.
- The EU and the US saw reductions in coal use due to plant retirements and increased renewable energy capacity.
- Coal-fired power generation hit a record high in 2024, contributing significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions.
- Efforts to phase out coal are lagging behind targets needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
- The COP26 'Glasgow Climate Pact' committed to 'phase down' coal use, but progress has been slow.
- India views coal as essential for economic growth, while the US has seen policy reversals supporting coal under different administrations.
- Greater international cooperation and support for emerging economies are needed to transition away from coal without sacrificing economic development.
Climate Change Could Heat the Earth Right into a New Ice Age
6 months ago
- Earth's climate has historically been regulated by natural processes like silicate weathering.
- A new study suggests that biological and oceanic feedback loops, accelerated by human-induced climate change, could lead to an overcorrection causing a deep freeze.
- Algal blooms, enhanced by warmer waters and excess nutrients, could sequester more carbon, leading to significant cooling.
- Unlike past deep freezes, the current oxygen-rich atmosphere may prevent extreme glaciation.
- The study emphasizes the need to address current global warming, as natural cooling processes are too slow to mitigate immediate impacts.
Climate scientists claim Gulf Stream could be near collapse
6 months ago
- Climate models project a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under anthropogenic greenhouse warming.
- A distinctive temperature fingerprint in the equatorial Atlantic signals AMOC changes, with mid-depth (1000–2000 m) warming occurring within a decade via baroclinic Kelvin waves.
- Mid-depth temperature changes in the equatorial Atlantic are more reliable indicators of AMOC slowdown than surface proxies on decadal and longer timescales.
- Observations show robust mid-depth warming in the equatorial Atlantic since 1960, emerging from natural variability in the early 2000s, suggesting AMOC slowdown began in the late 20th century.
- The equatorial Atlantic acts as a crucial crossroads for AMOC anomalies to propagate to other oceans via oceanic Kelvin waves.
- OGCM experiments highlight that AMOC slowdown drives upper and mid-depth warming in the equatorial Atlantic, with a vertical minimum at 1000 m.
- The signal-to-noise ratio for mid-depth equatorial warming is high, making it a reliable metric for detecting AMOC changes.
- The study suggests an AMOC weakening of ~2 Sv since the 1950s based on observed mid-depth warming, assuming models accurately capture the AMOC-equatorial warming relationship.
The world’s carbon emissions continue to rise. But 35 countries show progress
6 months ago
- Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025, reaching 38.1 billion tonnes of CO₂.
- China's emissions growth slows to 0.4%, while India's emissions rise by 1.4%, both below recent trends.
- US and EU emissions are expected to grow by 1.9% and 0.4%, respectively, due to factors like increased LNG use and lower renewable output.
- Net land-use change emissions decline to 4.1 billion tonnes, with Brazil, Indonesia, and the DRC contributing 57% of these emissions.
- Natural carbon sinks (ocean and land) remove half of human-caused emissions but show stagnation, with land sinks declining in 2024 due to El Niño.
- 35 countries have reduced fossil fuel emissions while growing their economies, signaling progress in decarbonization.
- Current policies project global warming of 2.8°C by 2100, still short of the Paris Agreement's 2°C target.
- The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C will be exhausted in 4 years, 1.7°C in 12 years, and 2°C in 25 years at current emission rates.
I wish we could ignore Gates on the climate crisis. As a billionaire, we can't
6 months ago
- Bill Gates is criticized for ignoring political realities in his climate essay.
- Gates suggests redirecting climate funds to adaptation and poverty, ignoring the role of wealth inequality.
- The ultra-rich influence politics to maintain wealth, exacerbating poverty and climate issues.
- Gates' essay fails to address the political power of billionaires and the impact of figures like Donald Trump.
- Fossil fuels remain profitable, and Gates' foundation's holdings in them have increased despite claims of divestment.
- Wealth may impair empathy and perspective, leading to a 'billionaire brain' effect.
- Gates' arguments are seen as outdated and misinformed, contributing to climate confusion.
- The potential for sudden environmental collapse is ignored in Gates' gradualist approach.
- Gates' economic and political power makes his influence unavoidable, despite flawed perspectives.
AI is guzzling energy for slop content
6 months ago
- AI is often criticized for high energy consumption and emissions, but some argue it can help solve the climate crisis.
- The AI Climate Institute was launched to promote AI as a tool for environmental solutions in developing countries.
- AI can optimize public transit, agriculture, and energy grids, and improve weather forecasting for climate disasters.
- AI can monitor emissions and biodiversity, helping predict short-term and long-term environmental changes.
- A report suggests AI could reduce global greenhouse gases by 3.2bn to 5.4bn tonnes in the next decade.
- Critics highlight the environmental cost of AI, including increased electricity and water use by data centers.
- By 2030, AI growth in the US could add 44m tons of CO2, equivalent to 10m gasoline cars.
- AI could also optimize fossil fuel production, potentially unlocking an extra trillion barrels of oil.
- While 'AI for good' has potential, it remains a small niche compared to profit-driven AI applications.
- The environmental impact of AI is alarming, with most of its use focused on profit rather than sustainability.
What Climate Change Will Do to America by Mid-Century
6 months ago
- Climate change is making many parts of America uninhabitable by mid-century, leading to mass migrations and societal upheaval.
- Octavia Butler's dystopian novel 'Parable of the Sower' eerily predicts current climate-related disasters, corporate control, and societal collapse.
- Recent wildfires in California, like the Eaton Fire, highlight how climate change exacerbates disasters and disproportionately affects marginalized communities.
- Insurance companies are retreating from high-risk areas, creating 'insurance deserts' and threatening financial stability similar to the 2008 crisis.
- Climate gentrification is displacing vulnerable populations in cities like Miami, where higher-elevation areas become more desirable as sea levels rise.
- The Trump administration's policies accelerate climate change by rolling back environmental protections, expanding fossil fuel production, and undermining resilience efforts.
- Climate disasters reveal systemic inequalities, with poor and minority communities bearing the brunt of inadequate disaster response and recovery resources.
- Mass migrations due to climate change could lead to political tensions, xenophobia, and authoritarian governance, as seen in historical precedents like the Dust Bowl.
- Grassroots movements and climate democracy are emerging as counterforces to corporate and governmental failures in addressing climate change.
- Despite dire predictions, Octavia Butler's legacy reminds us to 'count on the surprises'—hope lies in unexpected inspiration and collective action.
Why the Earth has tilted 31.5 inches
6 months ago
- Pumping groundwater changes Earth's tilt and rotation, impacting climate change and sea-level rise.
- A study shows Earth tilted 31.5 inches in less than two decades due to groundwater pumping, contributing to sea-level rise.
- Groundwater redistribution has the largest impact on the drift of Earth's rotational pole among climate-related causes.
- The study modeled data from 1993 to 2010, linking 2,150 gigatons of pumped groundwater to tilt changes.
- Water movement from midlatitudes, like western North America and northwestern India, significantly affects Earth's tilt.
- Understanding groundwater's role helps in addressing sea-level rise and climate change mitigation.
Africa's forests are now emitting more CO2 than they absorb
5 months ago
- African forests are now emitting more CO2 than they absorb, shifting from being a carbon sink to a carbon source.
- The Congo rainforest, Africa's largest, absorbs about 600 million tonnes of CO2 annually, but this is declining due to logging and mining.
- From 2011 to 2017, African forests lost 106 million tonnes of biomass yearly, equivalent to roughly 200 million tonnes of CO2 emissions.
- Deforestation in the Congo is a major driver of this biomass loss, threatening global efforts to mitigate climate change.
- Satellite data used to estimate biomass may not accurately reflect carbon absorption in high-biomass or degraded forests.
- The study did not account for Congo's wet peatlands, which absorb CO2 and store 30 billion tonnes of ancient carbon.
- Unlike the Amazon, where deforestation has decreased, deforestation in the Congo is increasing due to slash-and-burn agriculture and illegal logging.
- Brazil's Tropical Forests Forever Facility aims to pay tropical countries $4 per hectare of standing forest, but funding is currently insufficient.
- Carbon credits, often found to be ineffective, may be less reliable than direct funding mechanisms like the Tropical Forests Forever Facility.
One of the Greatest Polar-Bear Hunters Confronts a Vanishing World
5 months ago
- Ragnar Axelsson, an Icelandic photographer, visited Ittoqqortoormiit, Greenland's most remote settlement, in 1993 to document life in extreme Arctic conditions.
- Ittoqqortoormiit is isolated, surrounded by ice, mountains, and glaciers, with limited access via ship or helicopter.
- Axelsson accompanied Inuit hunter Hjelmer Hammeken on hunts, experiencing the harsh realities of Arctic survival, including polar bear threats and extreme cold.
- Traditional Inuit hunting practices are vanishing due to climate change, economic shifts, and external influences, impacting communities like Ittoqqortoormiit.
- Greenland's ice sheet is melting rapidly, affecting wildlife, hunting, and the livelihoods of indigenous communities.
- The article highlights the cultural and environmental challenges faced by Ittoqqortoormiit, including pollution, social issues, and the decline of traditional ways of life.
- Hjelmer Hammeken, a legendary hunter, reflects on the changes over his lifetime, from thriving hunting traditions to their near extinction.
- The town's population is dwindling, with young people leaving and few returning, leading to a loss of cultural continuity.
- Efforts to sustain the community through tourism and infrastructure projects face significant hurdles.
- The story underscores the broader implications of climate change and globalization on remote indigenous communities.
ESA Sentinel-1D delivers first high-resolution images
5 months ago
- First high-resolution images from Copernicus Sentinel-1D were shared at the European Space Agency’s Ministerial Council in Bremen, Germany.
- Sentinel-1D was launched on 4 November 2025 aboard an Ariane 6 from Europe’s Spaceport in French Guiana.
- Initial images captured Antarctic Peninsula, Tierra del Fuego, Thwaites Glacier, and Bremen within 50 hours of launch.
- Images demonstrate unprecedented data quality, setting a new record for space radar data delivery speed.
- Radar instruments enable imaging through clouds and darkness, ideal for polar region monitoring.
- Sentinel-1D also features an Automatic Identification System (AIS) for ship and sea pollution detection.
- Images highlight the fragility of Antarctic glaciers, vulnerable to climate change.
- Thwaites Glacier is one of the most unstable in Antarctica, at risk of rapid retreat.
- The release coincides with COP30 and the UN’s International Year of Glaciers' Preservation.
- Glaciers lost a record amount of ice from October 2023 to September 2024, contributing to sea-level rise.
- ESA officials praised the mission’s success and its importance for climate action and Earth observation.
Europe's water reserves drying up due to climate breakdown
5 months ago
- Europe's freshwater reserves are shrinking, especially in southern and central regions like Spain, Italy, Poland, and parts of the UK.
- Satellite data from 2002–2024 shows a stark imbalance: northern Europe is getting wetter, while southern and eastern regions are drying out.
- Climate breakdown is evident in the data, with trends correlating with rising global temperatures.
- Groundwater depletion is a major concern, particularly in south-east England, where it supplies 70% of public water.
- EU data shows a 6% increase in groundwater abstraction, driven by public water supply and farming.
- The European Commission's water resilience strategy aims to improve efficiency and modernize infrastructure.
- England faces potential severe water restrictions if rainfall remains low, with drought conditions possibly lasting until 2026.
- Experts call for urgent action, including water reuse, nature-based solutions, and better urban planning.
- Drying trends in Europe threaten food security, farming, and ecosystems, with global hotspots emerging in the Middle East, Asia, and the Americas.
- Iran's Tehran is nearing 'day zero,' where tap water may run out, potentially leading to evacuation.
What happened on energy and climate in China this year?
5 months ago
- China's CO2 emissions remained flat in 2024, with only a 0.2% increase, marking a significant plateau despite strong energy demand growth.
- Emissions from electricity fell by 2% due to rapid deployment of clean energy, adding 430 TWh of non-fossil electricity—nearly equivalent to Germany's total generation.
- Despite clean energy expansion, China continues to build new coal plants, though their utilization rates are declining, raising concerns about future emissions.
- Oil consumption for road transport dropped by 5%, driven by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, which now account for over half of new car sales.
- Industrial emissions rose, offsetting declines in electricity and transport, with slow adoption of low-carbon steel production methods like electric arc furnaces.
- Predicting China's emissions peak remains uncertain, but analysts expect it before 2030, with structural changes like EV adoption reducing rebound risks.
Why Tehran Is Running Out of Water
5 months ago
- Iran experienced an exceptional heat wave in summer 2025, with temperatures nearing 50°C (122°F), leading to public office closures.
- Tehran's water reservoirs, like Amir Kabir Dam, dropped to 8% capacity, risking a 'Day Zero' scenario where taps could run dry.
- Drought disrupted urban systems, shrinking rivers, reducing hydropower, and prompting strict water-saving measures in Tehran.
- Officials warned of potential evacuation if water supplies don't recover, with President Pezeshkian suggesting relocating the capital.
- Prolonged precipitation deficits over five years, especially in 2024-25, worsened by extreme heat, amplified hydrological stress.
- Satellite data showed a north-south precipitation dipole in Iran, with reduced rainfall in central and southern regions affecting water supplies.
- Climate change projections indicate declining precipitation in the Mediterranean basin and Mesopotamia, impacting Tehran's water sources.
- Poleward displacement of storm tracks due to climate change creates a precipitation dipole, reducing rainfall around Tehran.
- IPCC models suggest future dry conditions in Tehran may resemble recent observations, especially in spring.
- Tehran's transitional climate zone complicates precipitation projections, requiring more research on winter rainfall variability.
- Extreme heat and drought events are expected to become more frequent, threatening public health, energy, and food supply systems.
- Urgent global emissions mitigation and local adaptation are needed to address escalating climate risks in Tehran.
Volcanic eruptions set off a chain of events that brought Black Death to Europe
5 months ago
- Volcanic eruptions in the mid-14th century led to a drop in temperatures and crop failures in the Mediterranean.
- Italian city-states traded grain from the Black Sea to avoid famine, inadvertently bringing the Black Death to Europe.
- The Black Death, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, killed millions in Europe between 1347 and 1353.
- Tree rings and historical documents provide evidence linking climate change, agriculture, and trade to the pandemic's onset.
- The study highlights the role of climate and societal factors in the spread of the Black Death and its lessons for modern pandemics.
Saving Japan's exceptionally rare 'snow monsters'
5 months ago
- Japan's 'juhyo' or 'snow monsters' are unique natural formations that occur under rare atmospheric conditions on Mount Zao.
- These formations require specific weather conditions, including strong winds and temperatures between -6.3C to -0.1C, to create the distinctive 'shrimp tails' on trees.
- Research shows that the juhyo are shrinking due to climate change and forest damage, with some now only half a meter thick compared to 5-6 meters in the 1930s.
- The Aomori todomatsu trees, essential for juhyo formation, have been weakened by moth outbreaks and bark beetles, reducing the surface area for ice to cling to.
- Local efforts, including the Juhyo Revival Conference and tree planting initiatives, aim to restore the fir forests and preserve the snow monsters for future generations.
- Students and researchers are working on propagating and protecting the Aomori todomatsu species, despite challenges like pests and climate impacts.
- The juhyo are a significant tourist attraction and economic pillar for the region, with their disappearance posing a major threat to local businesses.
Ice Age lake at Death Valley National Park reemerges after record rainfall
5 months ago
- An ancient lake, informally known as 'Lake Manly,' has reemerged in Death Valley National Park after record rainfall.
- The lake formed at Badwater Basin, the lowest point in North America, due to repeated storms between September and November.
- This year's fall storms brought 2.41 inches of rain, making it Death Valley's wettest fall on record.
- November alone saw 1.76 inches of rain, breaking the previous November record set in 1923.
- Lake Manly was once a massive body of water during the Ice Age, spanning nearly 100 miles with depths up to 600 feet.
- The lake dried up over time as the climate warmed, leaving behind salty remnants.
- Modern appearances of Lake Manly are rare, occurring only when significant precipitation covers the salt flats at Badwater Basin.
- In August 2023, Death Valley received 2.20 inches of rain in one day, breaking another rainfall record.

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#climate change

I Stopped Being a Climate Catastrophist

Record leap in CO2 fuels fears of accelerating global heating

Weather disasters limit prosperity, also for many industrialised countries

Why the Coal Addiction Won't End Anytime Soon

Climate Change Could Heat the Earth Right into a New Ice Age

Climate scientists claim Gulf Stream could be near collapse

The world’s carbon emissions continue to rise. But 35 countries show progress

I wish we could ignore Gates on the climate crisis. As a billionaire, we can't

AI is guzzling energy for slop content

What Climate Change Will Do to America by Mid-Century

Why the Earth has tilted 31.5 inches

Africa's forests are now emitting more CO2 than they absorb

One of the Greatest Polar-Bear Hunters Confronts a Vanishing World

ESA Sentinel-1D delivers first high-resolution images

Europe's water reserves drying up due to climate breakdown

What happened on energy and climate in China this year?

Why Tehran Is Running Out of Water

Volcanic eruptions set off a chain of events that brought Black Death to Europe

Saving Japan's exceptionally rare 'snow monsters'

Ice Age lake at Death Valley National Park reemerges after record rainfall