The Rise of the "Scenario," a Trendy Way of Forecasting Our Dystopian Future

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The Soviet Union's Biopreparat program developed a genetically engineered 'chimera' pathogen weapon that could spread rapidly, kill within days, and resist all treatments, violating the Biological Weapons Convention.
Annie Jacobsen's book 'Biological War: A Scenario' combines investigative reporting and speculative fiction to depict a hypothetical outbreak from Russia's Vector lab, where a modified pneumonic plague causes euphoria initially, then fatal pulmonary necrosis, and antibiotics activate a second lethal pathogen.
The scenario highlights government failures: delayed response, martial law, antibiotic rationing, internet shutdown, and a fatality rate far exceeding COVID-19, leading to societal collapse and the death of most Americans.
Jacobsen criticizes the lack of effective regulation of bioweapons and the failure of imagination in U.S. tabletop exercises like TOPOFF 2000 and Dark Winter, which were abandoned due to the dreadfulness of the implications.
The book uses historical precedents (e.g., Soviet anthrax cover-up, past epidemics) to argue that unprecedented disasters can occur, challenging the inductive assumption that the future will resemble the past.

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